NBAFri, Jul 3 · 1:27 PM

Lakers @ Mavericks

Pricing the Mavericks side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

47¢

Fair line

50.5¢

Edge

+3.5¢

What an edge is worth

worked example · Mavericks · Lakers @ Mavericks

Kalshi asks 47¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 50.5¢. Pick a position size:

Position

531 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$273 / −$250

Expected value per trade

+$11

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Mavericks is priced at 50.5% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 47¢ — a +3.5¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.