Celtics @ Heat
Pricing the Celtics side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
69¢
Fair line
71.6¢
Edge
+2.6¢
What an edge is worth
worked example · Celtics · Celtics @ HeatKalshi asks 69¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 71.6¢. Pick a position size:
Position
362 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$107 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$4
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Celtics is priced at 71.6% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 69¢ — a +2.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.