Spain @ Portugal
Pricing the Portugal side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
24¢
Fair line
23.8¢
Edge
-0.2¢
Book by book
8 books · Portugal to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Portugal · Spain @ PortugalKalshi asks 24¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 23.8¢. Pick a position size:
Position
1,041 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$776 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$18
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Portugal is priced at 23.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 24¢ — a -0.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.