Norway @ Brazil
Pricing the Norway side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
23¢
Fair line
23.1¢
Edge
+0.1¢
Book by book
8 books · Norway to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Norway · Norway @ BrazilKalshi asks 23¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 23.1¢. Pick a position size:
Position
1,086 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$820 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$15
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Norway is priced at 23.1% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 23¢ — a +0.1¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.