World CupSat, Jul 4 · 5:00 PM

Morocco @ Canada

Pricing the Morocco side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

56¢

Fair line

53.9¢

Edge

-2.1¢

Book by book

8 books · Morocco to win

BetRivers

55.4¢

BetOnline.ag

54.3¢

FanDuel

54.1¢

BetUS

54.0¢

Bovada

53.8¢

DraftKings

53.4¢

MyBookie.ag

53.2¢

BetMGM

52.8¢

Consensus

53.9¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Morocco · Morocco @ Canada

Kalshi asks 56¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 53.9¢. Pick a position size:

Position

446 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$190 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$16

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Morocco is priced at 53.9% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 56¢ — a -2.1¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.