World CupSat, Jul 4 · 1:30 AM

Ghana @ Colombia

Pricing the Ghana side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

11¢

Fair line

10.9¢

Edge

-0.1¢

Book by book

8 books · Ghana to win

BetMGM

12.2¢

Bovada

11.5¢

DraftKings

11.3¢

FanDuel

11.1¢

BetUS

10.6¢

BetRivers

10.6¢

BetOnline.ag

10.5¢

MyBookie.ag

9.2¢

Consensus

10.9¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Ghana · Ghana @ Colombia

Kalshi asks 11¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 10.9¢. Pick a position size:

Position

2,272 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$1,988 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$36

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Ghana is priced at 10.9% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 11¢ — a -0.1¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.