France @ Paraguay
Pricing the Paraguay side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
5¢
Fair line
5.5¢
Edge
+0.5¢
Book by book
8 books · Paraguay to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Paraguay · France @ ParaguayKalshi asks 5¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 5.5¢. Pick a position size:
Position
5,000 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$4,675 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$50
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Paraguay is priced at 5.5% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 5¢ — a +0.5¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.