World CupMon, Jul 6 · 12:00 AM

England @ Mexico

Pricing the Mexico side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

32¢

Fair line

30.4¢

Edge

-1.6¢

Book by book

8 books · Mexico to win

BetRivers

31.3¢

BetOnline.ag

31.1¢

Bovada

30.7¢

MyBookie.ag

30.4¢

FanDuel

30.4¢

BetMGM

30.1¢

DraftKings

29.9¢

BetUS

29.6¢

Consensus

30.4¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Mexico · England @ Mexico

Kalshi asks 32¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 30.4¢. Pick a position size:

Position

781 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$519 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$24

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Mexico is priced at 30.4% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 32¢ — a -1.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.