World CupFri, Jul 3 · 10:00 PM

Cape Verde @ Argentina

Pricing the Cape Verde side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

4¢

Fair line

4.6¢

Edge

+0.6¢

Book by book

8 books · Cape Verde to win

BetMGM

5.5¢

BetUS

5.0¢

DraftKings

4.8¢

Bovada

4.7¢

BetRivers

4.5¢

FanDuel

4.5¢

BetOnline.ag

4.2¢

MyBookie.ag

1.9¢

Consensus

4.6¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Cape Verde · Cape Verde @ Argentina

Kalshi asks 4¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 4.6¢. Pick a position size:

Position

6,250 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$5,906 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$56

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Cape Verde is priced at 4.6% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 4¢ — a +0.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.