World CupTue, Jul 7 · 12:00 AM

Belgium @ USA

Pricing the USA side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

37¢

Fair line

36.7¢

Edge

-0.3¢

Book by book

8 books · USA to win

DraftKings

37.6¢

BetRivers

37.2¢

BetOnline.ag

37.2¢

Bovada

36.7¢

BetUS

36.7¢

MyBookie.ag

36.4¢

BetMGM

36.1¢

FanDuel

35.9¢

Consensus

36.7¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · USA · Belgium @ USA

Kalshi asks 37¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 36.7¢. Pick a position size:

Position

675 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$415 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$12

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

USA is priced at 36.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 37¢ — a -0.3¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.