Zachary Reese @ Ryan Gandra
Pricing the Zachary Reese side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
38¢
Fair line
39.7¢
Edge
+1.7¢
Book by book
4 books · Zachary Reese to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Zachary Reese · Zachary Reese @ Ryan GandraKalshi asks 38¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 39.7¢. Pick a position size:
Position
657 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$397 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$1
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Zachary Reese is priced at 39.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 38¢ — a +1.7¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.