Nikita Krylov @ Robert Whittaker
Pricing the Robert Whittaker side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
65¢
Fair line
63.7¢
Edge
-1.3¢
Book by book
5 books · Robert Whittaker to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Robert Whittaker · Nikita Krylov @ Robert WhittakerKalshi asks 65¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 63.7¢. Pick a position size:
Position
384 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$129 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$11
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Robert Whittaker is priced at 63.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 65¢ — a -1.3¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.