Mario Bautista @ Cory Sandhagen
Pricing the Cory Sandhagen side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
60¢
Fair line
58.3¢
Edge
-1.7¢
Book by book
5 books · Cory Sandhagen to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Cory Sandhagen · Mario Bautista @ Cory SandhagenKalshi asks 60¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 58.3¢. Pick a position size:
Position
416 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$160 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$13
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Cory Sandhagen is priced at 58.3% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 60¢ — a -1.7¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.