UFCSun, Jul 12 · 1:45 AM

Lone'er Kavanagh @ Brandon Royval

Pricing the Brandon Royval side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

34¢

Fair line

34.8¢

Edge

+0.8¢

Book by book

5 books · Brandon Royval to win

BetMGM

36.7¢

FanDuel

35.7¢

Bovada

34.8¢

DraftKings

34.3¢

BetOnline.ag

33.6¢

Consensus

34.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Brandon Royval · Lone'er Kavanagh @ Brandon Royval

Kalshi asks 34¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 34.8¢. Pick a position size:

Position

735 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$474 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$5

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Brandon Royval is priced at 34.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 34¢ — a +0.8¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.