Elisha Ellison @ Gable Steveson
Pricing the Gable Steveson side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
92¢
Fair line
92.8¢
Edge
+0.8¢
Book by book
5 books · Gable Steveson to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Gable Steveson · Elisha Ellison @ Gable StevesonKalshi asks 92¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 92.8¢. Pick a position size:
Position
271 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$18 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$2
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Gable Steveson is priced at 92.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 92¢ — a +0.8¢ gap per contract before fees. The venues currently cross far enough that opposite positions at each lock in a profit regardless of outcome. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.