Conor McGregor @ Max Holloway
Pricing the Conor McGregor side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
36¢
Fair line
32.5¢
Edge
-3.5¢
Book by book
5 books · Conor McGregor to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Conor McGregor · Conor McGregor @ Max HollowayKalshi asks 36¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 32.5¢. Pick a position size:
Position
694 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$434 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$35
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Conor McGregor is priced at 32.5% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 36¢ — a -3.5¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.