Cesar Almeida @ Damian Pinas
Pricing the Damian Pinas side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
66¢
Fair line
64.5¢
Edge
-1.5¢
Book by book
5 books · Damian Pinas to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Damian Pinas · Cesar Almeida @ Damian PinasKalshi asks 66¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 64.5¢. Pick a position size:
Position
378 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$123 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$11
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Damian Pinas is priced at 64.5% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 66¢ — a -1.5¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.