Adrian Yanez @ Cody Garbrandt
Pricing the Adrian Yanez side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
77¢
Fair line
76.7¢
Edge
-0.3¢
Book by book
5 books · Adrian Yanez to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Adrian Yanez · Adrian Yanez @ Cody GarbrandtKalshi asks 77¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 76.7¢. Pick a position size:
Position
324 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$70 / −$250
Expected value per trade
−$6
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Adrian Yanez is priced at 76.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 77¢ — a -0.3¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.