Twins @ Yankees
Pricing the Yankees side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
56¢
Fair line
61.9¢
Edge
+5.9¢
Book by book
9 books · Yankees to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Yankees · Twins @ YankeesKalshi asks 56¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 61.9¢. Pick a position size:
Position
446 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$190 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$20
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Yankees is priced at 61.9% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 56¢ — a +5.9¢ gap per contract before fees. The venues currently cross far enough that opposite positions at each lock in a profit regardless of outcome. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.