Pirates @ Nationals
Pricing the Nationals side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
49¢
Fair line
56.2¢
Edge
+7.2¢
Book by book
9 books · Nationals to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Nationals · Pirates @ NationalsKalshi asks 49¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 56.2¢. Pick a position size:
Position
510 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$252 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$29
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Nationals is priced at 56.2% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 49¢ — a +7.2¢ gap per contract before fees. The venues currently cross far enough that opposite positions at each lock in a profit regardless of outcome. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.