MLBSat, Jul 4 · 2:11 AM

Padres @ Dodgers

Pricing the Padres side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

36¢

Fair line

32.4¢

Edge

-3.6¢

Book by book

9 books · Padres to win

BetRivers

32.7¢

FanDuel

32.7¢

BetMGM

32.6¢

BetUS

32.5¢

MyBookie.ag

32.4¢

BetOnline.ag

31.9¢

LowVig.ag

31.9¢

DraftKings

31.6¢

Bovada

30.9¢

Consensus

32.4¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Padres · Padres @ Dodgers

Kalshi asks 36¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 32.4¢. Pick a position size:

Position

694 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$434 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$35

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Padres is priced at 32.4% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 36¢ — a -3.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.