MLBFri, Jul 3 · 11:11 PM

Orioles @ Reds

Pricing the Reds side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

52¢

Fair line

47.4¢

Edge

-4.6¢

Book by book

9 books · Reds to win

BetMGM

47.8¢

FanDuel

47.6¢

DraftKings

47.5¢

MyBookie.ag

47.5¢

Bovada

47.4¢

BetRivers

46.9¢

LowVig.ag

46.9¢

BetOnline.ag

46.9¢

BetUS

46.8¢

Consensus

47.4¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Reds · Orioles @ Reds

Kalshi asks 52¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 47.4¢. Pick a position size:

Position

480 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$223 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$29

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Reds is priced at 47.4% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 52¢ — a -4.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.