MLBFri, Jul 3 · 11:16 PM

Mets @ Braves

Pricing the Mets side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

49¢

Fair line

47.8¢

Edge

-1.2¢

Book by book

9 books · Mets to win

Bovada

49.1¢

FanDuel

48.5¢

DraftKings

47.9¢

BetMGM

47.8¢

BetOnline.ag

47.8¢

LowVig.ag

47.8¢

MyBookie.ag

47.8¢

BetUS

47.7¢

BetRivers

47.5¢

Consensus

47.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Mets · Mets @ Braves

Kalshi asks 49¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 47.8¢. Pick a position size:

Position

510 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$252 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$14

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Mets is priced at 47.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 49¢ — a -1.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.