MLBSat, Jul 4 · 12:11 AM

Giants @ Rockies

Pricing the Giants side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

59¢

Fair line

58.6¢

Edge

-0.4¢

Book by book

8 books · Giants to win

BetRivers

59.5¢

Bovada

59.0¢

FanDuel

58.9¢

LowVig.ag

58.6¢

BetOnline.ag

58.6¢

MyBookie.ag

58.3¢

DraftKings

58.3¢

BetMGM

57.8¢

Consensus

58.6¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Giants · Giants @ Rockies

Kalshi asks 59¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 58.6¢. Pick a position size:

Position

423 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$167 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$8

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Giants is priced at 58.6% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 59¢ — a -0.4¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.