MLBFri, Jul 3 · 8:06 PM

Cardinals @ Cubs

Pricing the Cardinals side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

44¢

Fair line

45.8¢

Edge

+1.8¢

Book by book

9 books · Cardinals to win

BetMGM

46.3¢

MyBookie.ag

45.8¢

BetOnline.ag

45.8¢

LowVig.ag

45.8¢

DraftKings

45.8¢

BetUS

45.7¢

BetRivers

45.6¢

Bovada

45.4¢

FanDuel

45.3¢

Consensus

45.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Cardinals · Cardinals @ Cubs

Kalshi asks 44¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 45.8¢. Pick a position size:

Position

568 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$310 / −$250

Expected value per trade

+$2

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Cardinals is priced at 45.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 44¢ — a +1.8¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.